Seven years ago, a mere eight words to energize a Labour conference and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.
As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything.
During that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.
The Evolution in Position and Settled Debates
Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge commitments that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.
Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence indicates a significant number have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe may not be the boiling pot of British politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.
Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.
The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on joining one.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. A proposal would be to announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism
Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.
It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.
- Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.
An Alarming Document and Geopolitical Considerations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains only one reference of the UK, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, the government is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Leadership Speculation and The Echo from the Past
This situation brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an effort to keep open the “option” of remain in a future vote. In fact, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is part of a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Danger and A Prudent Reminder
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.
It would be wise for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.
