Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
